Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

What vote percentage will Sadiq Khan win in the 2024 London mayoral election?

Resolved :43.849.3
8
Total Forecasters10
Community Prediction49.3 (46.9 - 51.5)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<30
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>70
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
46.9
49.26
51.54
0.1%

What was the final result?43.8

Community Baseline Score
6.6
Community Peer Score
7.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
DaAdCh
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2024 Leaderboard
Mayor of London
Contingent vote
Labour Party (UK)
Sadiq Khan
London mayoral elections

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