Question

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

160 comments160

194 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 194

Futurama

AI-Fizzle

AI-Dystopia

Singularia

Paperclipalypse

Make a Prediction

AI World		My Prediction		Me
Futurama	30.05%

AI-Fizzle	28.8%

AI-Dystopia	18.77%

Singularia	12.51%

Paperclipalypse	9.87%

Total: ?

(? remaining)

Authors:

NMorrison will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Is AI dominance inevitable? A technology ethicist says no

Raw Story•Nov 13, 2024

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

There Is a Solution to AI’s Existential Risk Problem

Time•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

57%

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

50%

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

52.8%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Is AI dominance inevitable? A technology ethicist says no

Raw Story•Nov 13, 2024

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

There Is a Solution to AI’s Existential Risk Problem

Time•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

57%

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

50%

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

52.8%