Question
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 203
Make a Prediction
| AI World | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
AI-Fizzle | 21% | |||
Futurama | 27.1% | |||
AI-Dystopia | 22.5% | |||
Singularia | 14.3% | |||
Paperclipalypse | 15.1% | |||
Total: ?
(? remaining)Authors:
Opened:Jan 22, 2024
Closes:Dec 30, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
50%
Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?
50%
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
53%
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:Jan 22, 2024
Closes:Dec 30, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
50%
Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?
50%
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
53%