Question

Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?

Resolved :No

6 comments6

Total Forecasters86

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.1

Community Peer Score

7.0

median 1.0%mean 2.9%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

A suspected attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels sees explosions near ship in Red Sea

Associated Press•Nov 12, 2024

Suspected Houthi Attack on Ship in Red Sea

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

Houthi Rebels Unsuccessfully Attack US Warships With Drones and Missiles

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%