Question

Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?

Resolved :No1%

6 comments6

Total Forecasters86

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.1

Community Peer Score

7.0

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Two US Navy pilots shot down over Red Sea in apparent ‘friendly fire’ incident, US military says

Associated Press•Dec 22, 2024

Two American Navy pilots shot down over Red Sea in 'friendly fire' incident, US military says

Daily Mail•Dec 22, 2024

Two US navy pilots shot down over Red Sea

Independent•Dec 22, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

0.9%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Two US Navy pilots shot down over Red Sea in apparent ‘friendly fire’ incident, US military says

Associated Press•Dec 22, 2024

Two American Navy pilots shot down over Red Sea in 'friendly fire' incident, US military says

Daily Mail•Dec 22, 2024

Two US navy pilots shot down over Red Sea

Independent•Dec 22, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

0.9%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Comments

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?