Question

Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?

Resolved :No40%

31 comments31

Total Forecasters478

Community Prediction40% (25% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

3.9

Community Peer Score

24.7

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Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Donald Trump Critics Push Plan to Block Him From Taking Power in DC Protest

Newsweek•Jan 6, 2025

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Associated Press•Jan 3, 2025

How the electoral vote count will play out this year

CNN•Jan 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

0.1%

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

54%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Donald Trump Critics Push Plan to Block Him From Taking Power in DC Protest

Newsweek•Jan 6, 2025

Which US elections are happening in 2025? Here’s a look at upcoming primary and general contests

Associated Press•Jan 3, 2025

How the electoral vote count will play out this year

CNN•Jan 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

0.1%

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

54%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

MetaculusM

Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?

Make a Prediction

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Comments

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?