Question

Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?

Resolved :Yes

15 comments15

Total Forecasters486

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-89.8

Community Peer Score

3.3

median 10.0%mean 17.3%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Health & Pandemics

Economy & Business

Public Health Emergency of International Concern

Public health

Medicine

International Health Regulations

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

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Newsweek•Nov 15, 2024

U.S. confirms first case of more aggressive strain of mpox

NBC•Nov 17, 2024

First known US case of person infected with new mpox strain reported

Guardian•Nov 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

37%

New PHEIC in 2024? → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025

When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?

2026-11-18

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