🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Resolved :No0.5%
15
10
Total Forecasters589
Community Prediction0.5% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
95.7
Community Peer Score
16.9
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
2024 Leaderboard
Taiwan
China

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