Question

Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?

26 comments26

Total Forecasters946

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 0.7%

median 0.7%mean 6.2%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

23%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

‘Russia doesn’t want to use nuclear weapons’: The view from wartime Moscow

Al Jazeera•Oct 7, 2024

Putin Allies Suggest Sinking UK with Nuclear Weapons

Newsweek•Oct 9, 2024

US Thought Risk of Russia Using a Nuclear Weapon Was at 50% in 2022, New Woodward Book Says

AntiWar•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

23%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

67%