Question
Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters49
Community Prediction
0.1%
(0.1% - 0.1%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Baseline Score
64.9
Community Peer Score
2.1
Authors:
Opened:Dec 28, 2023
Closes:Nov 5, 2024
Resolves:Nov 5, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Comments
3 comments
To be clear, I'm not suggesting this as a question because I think it is especially likely. I know some questions related to relatively improbable events have been criticized here before. Nonetheless, I think one of the potentially valuable functions of Metaculus is that it can perform the probabilistic equivalent of a fact check (a "stat check?") on news like this.
6
Authors:
Opened:Dec 28, 2023
Closes:Nov 5, 2024
Resolves:Nov 5, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
BrunoParga
·This resolves No, retroactive to July 22, the day after Biden withdrew.
He was on the ballot for all primaries, and was voluntarily removed from the ballot for the general election.