Question

Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?

Resolved:No
Community Prediction0%2.5%5%May 23May 27May 31Jun 04Jun 08Jun 12Jun 16Jun 20Jun 24Jun 28Jul 02Jul 06Jul 10Jul 14Jul 18now
Total Forecasters49
Community Prediction
0.1%
(0.1% - 0.1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
64.9
Community Peer Score
2.1
Authors:
Opened:Dec 28, 2023
Closes:Nov 5, 2024
Resolves:Nov 5, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2023

Comments

3 comments

This resolves No, retroactive to July 22, the day after Biden withdrew.

He was on the ballot for all primaries, and was voluntarily removed from the ballot for the general election.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting this as a question because I think it is especially likely. I know some questions related to relatively improbable events have been criticized here before. Nonetheless, I think one of the potentially valuable functions of Metaculus is that it can perform the probabilistic equivalent of a fact check (a "stat check?") on news like this.

6

@Prodicus thank you - approved.

1

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