Question

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters410

Community Prediction1% (0.4% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Eritrean–Ethiopian border conflict

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AntiWar•Dec 16, 2024

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Defense One•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

0.5%

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Eritrean–Ethiopian border conflict

Map Shows Possible WWIII Frontlines if Russia Invaded Europe

Newsweek•Dec 14, 2024

Conflicts of Interest: Will Israel Attack Iran Next?

AntiWar•Dec 16, 2024

The D Brief: Israel pounds Syrian military sites; Taiwan gets tanks; Will AI firms eat the Pentagon?; One dead on Fort Eisenhower; and just a bit more.

Defense One•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

0.5%

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%