Question

Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?

Resolved :Yes64%

105 comments105

Total Forecasters922

Community Prediction64% (49% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 64%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-3.3

Community Peer Score

21.5

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

2024 Russian presidential election

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Raw Story•Dec 17, 2024

Trump lost on immunity. What's next for his New York hush money conviction?

USA Today•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

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