Question

Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?

Resolved :Yes81%

5 comments5

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction81% (65% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 81%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

2.0

Community Peer Score

0.5

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2026

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

China

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Raw Story•Feb 21, 2025

To China, DeepSeek is more than an app—it's a strategic turning point

Defense One•Feb 21, 2025

China, Iran-based threat actors have found new ways to to use American AI models for covert influence: Report

FOX News•Feb 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2025-01-27

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2026

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

China

Chinese AI companies celebrate DeepSeek, shrug off global curbs

Raw Story•Feb 21, 2025

To China, DeepSeek is more than an app—it's a strategic turning point

Defense One•Feb 21, 2025

China, Iran-based threat actors have found new ways to to use American AI models for covert influence: Report

FOX News•Feb 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2025-01-27

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

25%