Question

Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?

Resolved :Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction81%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 81%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

2.0

Community Peer Score

0.5

median 81.0%mean 77.4%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

China

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

53%

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2024-12-03

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

11.5

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