Question

Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?

Resolved :Yes81%

5 comments5

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction81% (65% - 90%)

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50%

community: 81%

Did this actually happen?Yes

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

China

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2024-12-10

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

11.7

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

China

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

2024-12-10

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

11.7

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Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?

Make a Prediction

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

Comments

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?