Question

Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction15%

Make a Prediction

community: 15%

median 15.0%mean 19.2%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial intelligence

Infrastructure as a service

Cloud computing

Information technology

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

20%

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial intelligence

Infrastructure as a service

Cloud computing

Information technology

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

20%

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Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

Make a Prediction

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Comments

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?