Question

Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction15%

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50%

community: 15%

median 15.0%mean 22.8%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Infrastructure as a service

Cloud computing

Information technology

United States

Export control

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

25%

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Infrastructure as a service

Cloud computing

Information technology

United States

Export control

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If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

25%