Question

Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

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Total Forecasters44

Community Prediction2% (0.1% - 10%)

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community: 2%

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Authors:

will_aldred

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Infrastructure as a service

Cloud computing

Information technology

United States

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If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

24%

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Infrastructure as a service

Cloud computing

Information technology

United States

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Are AI defense firms about to eat the Pentagon?

Defense One•Dec 16, 2024

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

24%

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Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

Make a Prediction

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Comments

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?