Question

To the stars! #3: Will a first test of a high-power phased array laser system occur by 2018?

Resolved :No

13 comments13

Total Forecasters93

Community Prediction41%

Make a Prediction

community: 41%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-3.1

Community Peer Score

39.1

median 41.0%mean 43.5%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Breakthrough Starshot

Technology

Yuri Milner

Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

29%

Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Breakthrough Starshot

Technology

Yuri Milner

Nasa spacecraft receives signal from 290 million miles away

Independent•Oct 8, 2024

Ghost Rockets, ASAT Tests Create “A Ticking Time Bomb” For Astronauts

Forbes•Oct 8, 2024

Lasers could take broadband where fiber optics can’t

CNN•Oct 9, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

29%

Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

10%