Question

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters42

Community Prediction20%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

median 20.0%mean 29.9%

Authors:

RuslanBes

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Information technology

United States

Drone racing

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-09-01

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RuslanBes

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Information technology

United States

Drone racing

The AI Machine Gun of the Future Is Already Here

Wired•Nov 11, 2024

North Korea to mass produce self-detonating explosive drones, state media reports

CNN•Nov 15, 2024

North Korea Tests Exploding Kamikaze Attack Drones

Newsweek•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-09-01