Question

What will be the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters?

Resolved :9.366.03

11 comments11

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction6.03 (2.49 - 11.4)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

2.491

6.025

11.37

What was the final result?9.36

Community Baseline Score

78.6

Community Peer Score

5.2

Authors:

txmerritt

Opened:

Jan 23, 2024

Closes:

Sep 30, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 10, 2025

Elections

2024 Leaderboard

U.S. Customs and Border Protection

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

Presidency of Donald Trump

United States Department of Homeland Security

Portrait of a Battleground: The Next Frontier of Political and Legal Challenges Over ICE Deportations

Red State•Jan 29, 2025

How Many Migrants Have Been Arrested or Deported in Trump's First Week?

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Did Border Numbers Plunge 93% in Trump's First Week? What We Know

Newsweek•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the average number of noncitizens removed from the United States for fiscal years 2026 through 2028?

601k

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

62.3%

How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following fiscal years?

1.9M

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