Question

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction24% (4.4% - 27.5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 24%

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Iran

Azerbaijan

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Iran’s Return to Pragmatism

Atlantic•Jan 14, 2025

Azerbaijan’s Leader, Emboldened, Picks a Rare Fight With Putin

New York Times•Jan 16, 2025

Russia and Iran have a troubled history despite their current alliance

Associated Press•Jan 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

20%

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

26%

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Iran

Azerbaijan

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Iran’s Return to Pragmatism

Atlantic•Jan 14, 2025

Azerbaijan’s Leader, Emboldened, Picks a Rare Fight With Putin

New York Times•Jan 16, 2025

Russia and Iran have a troubled history despite their current alliance

Associated Press•Jan 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

20%

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

26%

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%