Question

Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ?

Resolved :No25%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction25% (15% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

38.8

Community Peer Score

3.2

Authors:

Kaleem

Opened:

Jan 13, 2024

Closes:

Feb 15, 2024

Resolves:

Feb 16, 2024

Recall of MPs Act 2015

Conservative Party (UK)

‘You’ve got nothing to lose’: Labour’s ‘bonus MPs’ aim to make their mark after surprise wins

Guardian•Jan 27, 2025

Is Reform unstoppable?

Spectator (UK)•Jan 27, 2025

Farage Counts Down to Reform Overtaking Tory Membership

Breitbart•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which party will win the seat of Bullwinkel in the 2025 Australian Federal Election?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

27%

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Comments

? comments