Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ?

Resolved :No25%
7
Total Forecasters10
Community Prediction25% (15% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 25%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
38.8
Community Peer Score
3.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Kaleem
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2024 Leaderboard
Conservative Party (UK)
Peter Bone
Wellingborough
Recall of MPs Act 2015

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