📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

12
31
71 forecasters

Make a Prediction

YearMe
2024
yes
2035
60%
2030
55%
2040
55%
2026
52%
2025
50%
Resolved Jan 1, 2025
Community Baseline Score
46.6
Community Peer Score
22.4

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
freelancejosh93NathanpmYoung
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Environment & Climate
2024 Leaderboard
2024-2025 Leaderboard
El Niño
NASA
Global warming
Attribution of recent climate change

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