📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

8
28
44 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Dateresolution
Date25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>5k
3.189k
3.433k
3.726k
1.5%

What was the final result?3.29k

Community Baseline Score
28.7
Community Peer Score
35.2

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
deKlik
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Technology
2024 Leaderboard
2024-2025 Leaderboard
Citigroup
Amazon (company)
Google
Robotics
Meta
Nvidia
Market capitalization
Wells Fargo

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