Question

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

20 comments20

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

90.7

Community Peer Score

7.4

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Feb 28, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

The D Brief: New Orleans attack; US, Israeli strikes in Yemen; Africa’s ‘new era of war’; What drove Afghanistan lies?; And a bit more.

Defense One•Jan 27, 2025

US Launches Airstrike in Somalia, Claims 2 al-Shabaab Fighters Killed

AntiWar•Jan 28, 2025

World Map Shows Most Dangerous Conflicts for US in 2025

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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35.1%

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

60.2%

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