Question

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction5%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

median 5.0%mean 7.2%

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Voting underway in Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland

Associated Press•Nov 13, 2024

Somaliland goes to the polls amid Ethiopia-Somalia port deal row

Al Jazeera•Nov 13, 2024

Somaliland eyes recognition as it goes to polls

Al Jazeera•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?

19%

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Voting underway in Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland

Associated Press•Nov 13, 2024

Somaliland goes to the polls amid Ethiopia-Somalia port deal row

Al Jazeera•Nov 13, 2024

Somaliland eyes recognition as it goes to polls

Al Jazeera•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?

19%

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%