Question

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction8%

Make a Prediction

community: 8%

median 8.0%mean 10.7%

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?

23%

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

ACLED Conflict Severity Index: January 2023

•Oct 23, 2024

Conflict Index Results: January 2024

•Oct 23, 2024

Conflict Index Results: July 2024

•Oct 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?

23%

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%