Question

Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction8%

Make a Prediction

community: 8%

median 8.0%mean 9.9%

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Future of AI

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

54%

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Future of AI

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Top AI Labs Have 'Very Weak' Risk Management, Study Says

Time•Oct 2, 2024

OpenAI raises $6.6B and is now valued at $157B

TechCrunch•Oct 3, 2024

OpenAI just raised $6.6 billion to build ever-larger AI models

Verge•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

54%

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Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?

Make a Prediction

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?

Comments

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?