Question

Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?

Resolved :Yes7%

22 comments22

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction7% (1.3% - 11%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-0.6

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Feb 15, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2026

AGI Outcomes

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Alibaba’s New Model Adds Fuel to China’s AI Race

Time•Mar 7, 2025

AI is creating 'overly compliant helpers,' not revolutionaries, said the top scientist at Hugging Face

Business Insider•Mar 7, 2025

9 US AI startups have raised $100M or more in 2025

TechCrunch•Mar 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

40%

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Feb 15, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2026

AGI Outcomes

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Alibaba’s New Model Adds Fuel to China’s AI Race

Time•Mar 7, 2025

AI is creating 'overly compliant helpers,' not revolutionaries, said the top scientist at Hugging Face

Business Insider•Mar 7, 2025

9 US AI startups have raised $100M or more in 2025

TechCrunch•Mar 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

40%