Question

Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction5% (1.3% - 9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

60%

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Here are the types of AI companies enterprise VCs want to back in 2025

TechCrunch•Jan 20, 2025

America needs to pull off a colossal building plan to reach a new 'Intelligence Age'

Business Insider•Jan 21, 2025

How OpenAI’s Sam Altman Is Thinking About AGI and Superintelligence in 2025

Time•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

60%