Question

Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction7%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

median 7.0%mean 9.3%

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

53%

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

53%