Question

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction93% (82% - 98%)

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50%

community: 93%

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Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

FLOPS

Information technology

United States

Epoch

Joe Biden

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Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

2024-12-15

Comments

? comments

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

FLOPS

Information technology

United States

Epoch

Joe Biden

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Will the world's fastest supercomputer please stand up?

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Google Unveils Gemini 2.0 AI Despite Antitrust Battle

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

2024-12-15

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Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Make a Prediction

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

Comments

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?