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How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

4 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Number	25th	median	75th
2028	3.92M ...	4.63M ...	5.62M ...
2038	5.37M ...	7.14M ...	9.84M ...
2048	6.82M ...	10.7M ...	18.3M ...

weight:

My Prediction

community

<1M

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100M

...

0.1%

3.924M

4.631M

5.62M

0.1%

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

2048

2038

2028

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Philosophy of mind

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the share of high impact AI publications from China be in 2027?

46.6

What will be the world population in the following years?

8.16B

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Philosophy of mind

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the share of high impact AI publications from China be in 2027?

46.6

What will be the world population in the following years?

8.16B

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

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How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

What will the share of high impact AI publications from China be in 2027?

What will be the world population in the following years?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Comments

What will the share of high impact AI publications from China be in 2027?

What will be the world population in the following years?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

What will the share of high impact AI publications from China be in 2027?

What will be the world population in the following years?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

What will the share of high impact AI publications from China be in 2027?

What will be the world population in the following years?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?