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How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

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4 forecasters

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Number

median

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Forecast Timeline

2048

2038

2028

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Mar 12, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2048

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 1, 2049

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Philosophy of mind

The New York Times Embraces AI, Approves Internal Use of A Suite of Tools

•Feb 18, 2025

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Feb 19, 2025

We asked our staff for their 2025 predictions

Verge•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the share of high impact AI publications from China be in 2027?

46.6

What will be the world population in the following years?

8.5B

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Mar 12, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2048

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 1, 2049

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Philosophy of mind

The New York Times Embraces AI, Approves Internal Use of A Suite of Tools

•Feb 18, 2025

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Feb 19, 2025

We asked our staff for their 2025 predictions

Verge•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the share of high impact AI publications from China be in 2027?

46.6

What will be the world population in the following years?

8.5B

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵