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When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
Forecast Timeline
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| OOMs | 25th | median | 75th |
|---|---|---|---|
2026-08-19 ... | 2027-08-23 ... | 2028-11-12 ... | |
2028-10-26 ... | 2030-07-13 ... | 2032-05-19 ... | |
2030-11-18 ... | 2032-10-16 ... | 2035-02-03 ... |
weight:
My Prediction
community<2025-01-01
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2050-01-01
...
...
...
...
...
6.2%
2026-08-19 18:25
2027-08-23 23:59
2028-11-12 09:44
0.1%
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