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When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
Forecast Timeline
Make a Prediction
| 25th | median | 75th | |
|---|---|---|---|
2030-11 ... | 2032-10 ... | 2035-02 ... | |
2028-10 ... | 2030-07 ... | 2032-05 ... | |
2026-08 ... | 2027-08 ... | 2028-11 ... |
My Prediction
community<2025-01
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2050-01
...
...
...
...
...
1.2%
2030-11
2032-10
2035-02
0.2%