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When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
Forecast Timeline
Make a Prediction
| 25th | median | 75th | |
|---|---|---|---|
2028-01 ... | 2029-06 ... | 2031-06 ... | |
2032-09 ... | 2035-10 ... | 2042-05 ... | |
2031-02 ... | 2033-09 ... | 2037-05 ... | |
2025-03 ... | 2025-11 ... | 2027-07 ... |
My Prediction
community<2025-01
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2050-01
...
...
...
...
...
0.9%
2028-01
2029-06
2031-06
0.3%