Question

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters93

Community Prediction

4.9%

(1% - 13%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4.9%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 31, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 3, 2024

AGI Outcomes

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Toby Ord

A new, challenging AGI test stumps most AI models

TechCrunch•Mar 25, 2025

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

The Perilous Race to Superintelligent A.I.: Progress or Pandora’s Box?

Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

50%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%

Comments

? comments