Question

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction5% (2% - 16%)

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50%

community: 5%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

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Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

75%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

84%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Will 2025 Be a "Technology Wake-Up Call" for Clinicians?

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

75%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

84%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

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Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Make a Prediction

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Comments

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?