Question

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters91

Community Prediction5% (1% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 31, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

AGI Outcomes

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Toby Ord

Biggest Risk in A.I. Is ‘Missing Out,’ Says Google CEO Sundar Pichai

Observer (NY)•Feb 12, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

In Paris, Tech CEOs and Global Leaders Shift Stances on A.I. Safety

Observer (NY)•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

50%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%

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