Question

Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?

Resolved :Ambiguous29%

45 comments45

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction29% (7% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 29%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Feb 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Israel tells UN it's shutting down all UNRWA operations in Jerusalem: 'acute security risks'

FOX News•Jan 25, 2025

'Tainted by Terror': Israel Bans UNRWA From Operating in Its Territory

Washington Free Beacon•Jan 29, 2025

R.I.P. UNRWA

Townhall•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will Palestine become a full UN member state?

2042-01-11

How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

15%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Feb 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Israel tells UN it's shutting down all UNRWA operations in Jerusalem: 'acute security risks'

FOX News•Jan 25, 2025

'Tainted by Terror': Israel Bans UNRWA From Operating in Its Territory

Washington Free Beacon•Jan 29, 2025

R.I.P. UNRWA

Townhall•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will Palestine become a full UN member state?

2042-01-11

How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

15%