Group

Will molecular nanotechnology have been proven feasible by the following years?

18 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

2050

2040

2030

Make a Prediction

Year		My Prediction		Me
2050	77%

2040	61%

2030	24.2%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Minimum Viable Product

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

46.9%

When Will We See Real Nanotechnology?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Minimum Viable Product

Is AI dominance inevitable? A technology ethicist says no

Raw Story•Nov 13, 2024

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

There Is a Solution to AI’s Existential Risk Problem

Time•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

46.9%