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Will molecular nanotechnology have been proven feasible by the following years?

19 forecasters

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2050

2040

2030

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Year		My Prediction		Me
2050	77%

2040	56.2%

2030	24.2%

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Authors:

will_aldred

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Minimum Viable Product

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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

46.9%

When Will We See Real Nanotechnology?

Comments

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Minimum Viable Product

This Year’s Nobel Prizes Are a Warning about AI

Scientific American•Dec 21, 2024

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

4 ways artificial intelligence revealed the unexpected in 2024

CNN•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

46.9%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will molecular nanotechnology have been proven feasible by the following years?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

When Will We See Real Nanotechnology?

Comments

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

When Will We See Real Nanotechnology?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

When Will We See Real Nanotechnology?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

When Will We See Real Nanotechnology?