🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

Community Prediction0%3%6%9%12%15%Nov 14Nov 18Nov 22Nov 26Nov 30Dec 04Dec 08Dec 12Dec 16Dec 20Dec 24Dec 28Jan 01Jan 05Jan 09now
Total Forecasters81
Community Prediction4% (2% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 4%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Opened:Mar 1, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026

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