Question

Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?

Resolved :Yes

22 comments22

Total Forecasters102

Community Prediction50%

Make a Prediction

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-44.6

Community Peer Score

20.0

median 50.0%mean 58.3%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Jordan

United States

Joe Biden

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? → US Iran War Before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

14%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Jordan

United States

Joe Biden

Israel has not briefed U.S. military officials on its plans for retaliation against Iran, U.S. officials say

NBC•Oct 8, 2024

Biden, Harris Speak With Netanyahu To Discuss Attacking Iran

AntiWar•Oct 10, 2024

Israel continues to weigh options, timing on Iran strike following Biden-Netanyahu call

FOX News•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? → US Iran War Before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

14%