US Iran War Before 2025?

conditional

condition

Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?

Resolved :No

28 forecasters

if yes

if no

US Iran War Before 2025?

Resolved :Annulled0.2%

US Iran War Before 2025?

Resolved :No0.1%

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Make a Prediction

Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?	US Iran War Before 2025?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 0.2%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Feb 7, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Iran–Israel proxy conflict

Yugoslavia

List of Palestinian rocket attacks on Israel in 2002–2006

Hezbollah

NATO

Report: Military Action Against Iran Will Be a ‘Real Possibility’ Under Trump

AntiWar•Jan 26, 2025

Iran’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year

Breitbart•Jan 28, 2025

Blinken says Iran had bad year, but nuclear negotiations possible

Al Jazeera•Feb 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030? → US-China war before 2035?

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

15%

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Feb 7, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Iran–Israel proxy conflict

Yugoslavia

List of Palestinian rocket attacks on Israel in 2002–2006

Hezbollah

NATO

Report: Military Action Against Iran Will Be a ‘Real Possibility’ Under Trump

AntiWar•Jan 26, 2025

Iran’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year

Breitbart•Jan 28, 2025

Blinken says Iran had bad year, but nuclear negotiations possible

Al Jazeera•Feb 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030? → US-China war before 2035?

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

15%