Question

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

Resolved :Yes

76 comments76

Total Forecasters171

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-1.9

Community Peer Score

8.0

median 99.0%mean 97.6%

Authors:

Sylvain RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024? → 1,000 Dead In Israel/Iran Conflict by 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Sylvain RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Israel’s maximalist demands unlikely to lead to ceasefire with Hezbollah

Al Jazeera•Nov 15, 2024

Daily Hezbollah strikes begin to dwindle as Israel closes in on cease-fire deal: officials

New York Post•Nov 15, 2024

Scores killed by Israeli strikes on Gaza; suspects arrested for firing flares at Netanyahu's house

NBC•Nov 17, 2024

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