Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

Resolved :Yes99%
15
76
Total Forecasters171
Community Prediction99% (99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
-1.9
Community Peer Score
8.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
SylvainRyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Geopolitics
2024 Leaderboard
Hamas
Syrian civil war
Lebanon
Israel
Hezbollah

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