Question

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

Resolved :Yes99%

76 comments76

Total Forecasters171

Community Prediction99% (99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-1.9

Community Peer Score

8.0

Authors:

Sylvain RyanBeck

Opened:

Feb 2, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

Live Updates: Israel’s Cease-Fires in Lebanon and Gaza Appear Fragile

New York Times•Jan 26, 2025

Hezbollah ‘Patient,’ But Threatens Retaliation If Israel Troops Remain Past Deadline

AntiWar•Jan 27, 2025

22 reported killed in Lebanon as Israeli forces remain after a withdrawal deadline

CBS•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

60%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Sylvain RyanBeck

Opened:

Feb 2, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

Live Updates: Israel’s Cease-Fires in Lebanon and Gaza Appear Fragile

New York Times•Jan 26, 2025

Hezbollah ‘Patient,’ But Threatens Retaliation If Israel Troops Remain Past Deadline

AntiWar•Jan 27, 2025

22 reported killed in Lebanon as Israeli forces remain after a withdrawal deadline

CBS•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

60%