Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?

Resolved :59.864
3
12
Total Forecasters79
Community Prediction64 (60.1 - 67.6)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<20
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>80
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
60.08
63.95
67.61
1.2%

What was the final result?59.8

Community Baseline Score
48.0
Community Peer Score
15.7
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Elections
Politics
2024 Leaderboard
2012 United States presidential election in South Carolina
South Carolina
2024 Elections (US)
Nikki Haley
Republican Party (US)
Donald Trump

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