Question

Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?

Resolved :No

88 comments88

Total Forecasters162

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.4

Community Peer Score

11.5

median 1.0%mean 7.1%

Authors:

Langley

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Submarine communications cable

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

55%

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