Question

Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?

Resolved :No

89 comments89

Total Forecasters162

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

median 1.0%mean 7.1%

Authors:

Langley

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Submarine communications cable

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

48%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Langley

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Submarine communications cable

A drone has struck a ship in the Red Sea in a suspected Houthi attack

Associated Press•Oct 1, 2024

Houthi Rebels Warn Shipowners of Impending Attacks: Reports

Newsweek•Oct 3, 2024

Houthis Claim Drone Attack on Tel Aviv, Warn Shipping Companies to Stay Out of Red Sea

Breitbart•Oct 4, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

48%

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Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?

Make a Prediction

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Comments

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?