Question

Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?

Resolved :No1%

88 comments88

Total Forecasters162

Community Prediction1% (0.5% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.4

Community Peer Score

11.5

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Langley

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Submarine communications cable

NATO is working to reroute data through space, fearing Russia could slice undersea internet cables

Business Insider•Jan 2, 2025

China-Linked Ship Suspected of Undersea Cable Sabotage

Newsweek•Jan 7, 2025

Taiwan investigating Chinese vessel over damage to undersea cable

Guardian•Jan 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

55%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Langley

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Submarine communications cable

NATO is working to reroute data through space, fearing Russia could slice undersea internet cables

Business Insider•Jan 2, 2025

China-Linked Ship Suspected of Undersea Cable Sabotage

Newsweek•Jan 7, 2025

Taiwan investigating Chinese vessel over damage to undersea cable

Guardian•Jan 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

55%

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

MetaculusM

Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?

Make a Prediction

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Comments

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030) → Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?