🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?

Resolved :No4%
9
38
Total Forecasters152
Community Prediction4% (1% - 7%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
28.5
Community Peer Score
31.7
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
IY
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Geopolitics
2024 Leaderboard
Ramadan
Gaza Strip
Hamas
United States
Israel
Egypt
Rafah

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