Question

Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?

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Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction12.6% (10% - 19%)

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50%

community: 12.6%

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Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

Fujian

People's Liberation Army

China

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis

First Taiwan Strait Crisis

Taiwan

Kinmen

Matsu Islands

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

More aircraft, more ships, more often: how the PLA is pressuring Taiwan’s defences

•Dec 13, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

33.5%

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

Fujian

People's Liberation Army

China

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis

First Taiwan Strait Crisis

Taiwan

Kinmen

Matsu Islands

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

More aircraft, more ships, more often: how the PLA is pressuring Taiwan’s defences

•Dec 13, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

33.5%

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Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?

Make a Prediction

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Comments

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?