Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Question
Question
Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?
4
3 comments
3
1d
1w
2m
all
Total Forecasters
26
Community Prediction
12.6%
Make a Prediction
50%
community: 12.6%
Sign Up to Predict
Background Info
Histogram
median
12.6%
mean
17.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Authors:
Cato
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
Republic of China Armed Forces
Fujian
People's Liberation Army
China
Second Taiwan Strait Crisis
First Taiwan Strait Crisis
Taiwan
Kinmen
Matsu Islands
Submit Tags Feedback
Comments
Log in
? comments
recent
Load more comments
Follow
embed
Authors:
Cato
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
Republic of China Armed Forces
Fujian
People's Liberation Army
China
Second Taiwan Strait Crisis
First Taiwan Strait Crisis
Taiwan
Kinmen
Matsu Islands
Submit Tags Feedback
News Match
Trump said Taiwan should pay for US protection. Here's what a second Trump term could mean for the island.
Business Insider
•
Nov 11, 2024
Taiwan eyes $15B military package in signal to Trump administration it is ‘serious’ on defense: report
FOX News
•
Nov 12, 2024
Timeline: China’s Maritime Disputes
•
Nov 11, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
News Match
Trump said Taiwan should pay for US protection. Here's what a second Trump term could mean for the island.
Business Insider
•
Nov 11, 2024
Taiwan eyes $15B military package in signal to Trump administration it is ‘serious’ on defense: report
FOX News
•
Nov 12, 2024
Timeline: China’s Maritime Disputes
•
Nov 11, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
39%
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?
1%
Show More Questions
Similar Questions
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
39%
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?
1%
Show More Questions