Question

Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction16% (10% - 38%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 16%

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Mar 6, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2028

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

Fujian

People's Liberation Army

China

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis

First Taiwan Strait Crisis

Taiwan

Kinmen

Matsu Islands

Taiwan demonstrates sea defenses against potential Chinese attack as tensions rise with Beijing

Associated Press•Jan 21, 2025

Q&A: 'Vast, Deep Impact' if China Invades Taiwan, Says Author Kerry Brown

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Taiwan president says ‘impossible’ for mainland China to be the motherland

Independent•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

40%

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

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