Group

Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

28 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

India

Israel

Russia

Make a Prediction

Country		My Prediction		Me
India	50%

Israel	40%

Russia	12%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Mar 12, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

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On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

2.6×10²⁵

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Mar 12, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Artificial Intelligence

What Is DeepSeek, the New Chinese OpenAI Rival?

Time•Jan 28, 2025

China's DeepSeek Bombshell Rocks Trump's $500B AI Boondoggle

Lew Rockwell•Jan 28, 2025

What’s DeepSeek, China’s AI startup sending shockwaves through global tech?

Al Jazeera•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

2.6×10²⁵

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

40%