Question

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters74

Community Prediction7% (4% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

Authors:

MetaCalculator

Opened:

Mar 17, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

NATO Ally Warns of Russia Launching 'Large-Scale' War in Europe

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

Plans for Ukraine to Join EU, NATO 'Suicidal': Moscow

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Russian State TV Warns Kremlin Can Now Strike 3 NATO Allies' Capitals

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

35.2%

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027? → Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaCalculator

Opened:

Mar 17, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

NATO Ally Warns of Russia Launching 'Large-Scale' War in Europe

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

Plans for Ukraine to Join EU, NATO 'Suicidal': Moscow

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Russian State TV Warns Kremlin Can Now Strike 3 NATO Allies' Capitals

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

35.2%