Question

Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?

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Total Forecasters92

Community Prediction74.9% (67% - 78%)

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50%

community: 74.9%

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Elections

Politics

2024 Leaderboard

US House of Representatives

US Electoral College

Contingent election

2024 Elections (US)

In 2024, independent voters grew their share of the vote, split their tickets and expanded their influence

The Conversation•Dec 10, 2024

Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions

•Dec 17, 2024

Democrats will try to abolish the Electoral College — after Trump ironically fuels debate

AlterNet•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Comments

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Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Politics

2024 Leaderboard

US House of Representatives

US Electoral College

Contingent election

2024 Elections (US)

In 2024, independent voters grew their share of the vote, split their tickets and expanded their influence

The Conversation•Dec 10, 2024

Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions

•Dec 17, 2024

Democrats will try to abolish the Electoral College — after Trump ironically fuels debate

AlterNet•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

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Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?

Make a Prediction

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Comments

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?