Group

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Forecast Timeline

2035

2030

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
2035	4%

2030	2%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial Intelligence

Tactical nuclear weapon

Democratic Progressive Party

AI takeover

Taiwan Strait

Nagasaki

Strategic nuclear weapon

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

10%

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial Intelligence

Tactical nuclear weapon

Democratic Progressive Party

AI takeover

Taiwan Strait

Nagasaki

Strategic nuclear weapon

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

10%

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

Comments

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?