Group

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

8 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

2035

2030

Make a Prediction

Year		My Prediction		Me
2035	4%

2030	2%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial Intelligence

Tactical nuclear weapon

Democratic Progressive Party

AI takeover

Japan

Nvidia

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

15%

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial Intelligence

Tactical nuclear weapon

Democratic Progressive Party

AI takeover

Japan

Nvidia

China building nuclear reactor to power new aircraft carrier, images and documents indicate

PBS NewsHour•Nov 12, 2024

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

The US-China tech race is moving from chips to the raw materials they're made of

Business Insider•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

15%