Group

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

10 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

2035

2030

Make a Prediction

Year		My Prediction		Me
2035	3%

2030	1.6%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

No first use

China

Washington, D.C.

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If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

No first use

China

Washington, D.C.

What Would World War III Look Like?

Newsweek•Dec 10, 2024

3 Signs Show if Putin Is Getting Serious About Using Nuclear Weapons

Newsweek•Dec 10, 2024

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

20%

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Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

Comments

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?