Group

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

10 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

2035

2030

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
2035	3%

2030	1.6%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

No first use

China

Washington, D.C.

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

15%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

No first use

China

Washington, D.C.

China Will Have Four Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carriers by 2035

•Nov 11, 2024

China’s New Prototype Nuclear Aircraft Carrier Sparks Global Concerns

•Nov 11, 2024

Secret China project revealed by satellite images to be nuclear propulsion system

Independent•Nov 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

15%