Question

Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?

Resolved :Yes90%

4 comments4

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction90% (77% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.8

Community Peer Score

0.3

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Aerospace engineering

Taiwan Strait

Foreign policy of the Donald Trump administration

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

United States Navy

China's Navy Gains on US Fleet in One Lethal Way

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

China Hits Back at US Over Nuclear Weapons Alarm

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Pentagon Warns China Has Tripled Its Nuclear Arsenal

Breitbart•Jan 31, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Aerospace engineering

Taiwan Strait

Foreign policy of the Donald Trump administration

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

United States Navy

China's Navy Gains on US Fleet in One Lethal Way

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

China Hits Back at US Over Nuclear Weapons Alarm

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Pentagon Warns China Has Tripled Its Nuclear Arsenal

Breitbart•Jan 31, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%