Question

Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?

Resolved :Yes

6 comments6

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction90%

Make a Prediction

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

median 90.0%mean 83.5%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Aerospace engineering

Taiwan Strait

Foreign policy of the Donald Trump administration

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

United States Navy

US SLCM 2030 → US-China war before 2035?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Aerospace engineering

Taiwan Strait

Foreign policy of the Donald Trump administration

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

United States Navy

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

US SLCM 2030 → US-China war before 2035?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

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Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?

Make a Prediction

US SLCM 2030 → US-China war before 2035?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Comments

US SLCM 2030 → US-China war before 2035?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

US SLCM 2030 → US-China war before 2035?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

US SLCM 2030 → US-China war before 2035?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?