Question

Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?

Resolved :Yes90%

4 comments4

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction90% (77% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.8

Community Peer Score

0.3

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Aerospace engineering

Taiwan Strait

Foreign policy of the Donald Trump administration

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

United States Navy

The US Navy's overwhelming missile-tube advantage over China is shrinking

Business Insider•Dec 21, 2024

Dual-Capable Missiles Could Give China an Edge in Nuclear War Against US

Newsweek•Dec 24, 2024

A key answer to China's growing surface navy is America's submarine force

Business Insider•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

US SLCM 2030 → US-China war before 2035?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

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