Question

Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?

Resolved :Yes

23 comments23

Total Forecasters91

Community Prediction95%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-84.0

Community Peer Score

18.0

median 95.0%mean 82.1%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

South China Sea

China

Philippines

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea

Armed Forces of the Philippines

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

58.5%

Comments

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